The government is expected to fall short of its 1.5m new homes target by at least 388,000 homes, a think tank has warned
Credit: Mark Waugh Manchester Press Photography Ltd
Greater Manchester is likely to miss its housebuilding target by more than 23,000 homes, according to a new report.
The report by Centre for Cities suggests proposed planning changes will not be enough to meet the Labour’s 1.5m target by 2029, with large urban areas seeing the biggest shortfalls.
The think tank found that the government is likely to miss its national target by at least 388,000 homes with Greater Manchester alone expected to be 23,256 homes short – 39 per cent below the target for the city-region.
Deputy Prime Minister Angel set out changes to mandatory local housing targets in July. The new targets mean Greater Manchester will need to build 14,943 new homes every year which is 17,705 more new homes than what the city-region had planned for by 2029.
But analysis of 80 years of data by Centre for Cities shows that even if private development were to rise to the same level as seen during the peak of housebuilding, the sector would only be able to deliver 1.1m new homes. The think tank says the shortfall is unlikely to be bridged in full by public housebuilding within the next five years and has warned that more green belt may need to be built on.
The under-delivery of new housing following the latest planning reforms is forecast to be largest in big metropolitan areas, particularly Greater London where it’s estimated that over four years, private development would fall nearly 196,000 new homes short in – 61 per cent below the area’s target. Outside of Greater London, Tyne and Wear is projected to see the greatest shortfall, of more than 10,000 homes, 49 per cent of the local target, followed by Merseyside with an estimated shortfall of nearly 13,000 homes, 47 per cent short.
The analysis shows how housebuilding is constrained by the discretionary planning system in cities and by the green belt, which was established to block suburban development.
Centre for Cities say neither of these is adequately addressed in the government’s latest proposals for housing and planning, arguing that the green belt may need to be scrapped, while greater public sector intervention is needed.
Andrew Carter, Chief Executive of Centre for Cities, said: “Rightly, the Government has set a bold housebuilding target. For the country to achieve it, parts of England would have to reach an 80-year high in housebuilding. This would be a huge positive for the country but the approach has to be much more ambitious.
“We’re in a productivity crisis. The UK’s big cities are the jobs and productivity engines of the economy but our planning system doesn’t allowand has never allowed – them to build an adequate supply of homes for everyone that could work there.”
In response, Labour has said they will ask authorities who are otherwise unable to meet local housing need to review their Green Belt to identify opportunities. They are also taking action to improve planning capacity, including recruiting 300 extra planners, and say they will deliver the biggest social and affordable housing increase in a generation.
The government is pinning its hopes on housebuilding to reboot the economy and address the housing shortage, but the strategy hinges on local authorities setting ambitious targets for new private housing projects.
However, a recent Freedom of Information request by the BBC revealed that councils have described the policy as “unrealistic” and “impossible to achieve”, following a consultation earlier this year.
BBC’s analysis of the responses, which covers 90 per cent of participating councils, indicates that apprehensions about the policy are not limited to one political party but extend across Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat-controlled areas. Major concerns revolve around the formula used to figure out housing targets.
Councils fear it doesn’t take into account the pressure on existing infrastructure, scarcity of available land, and a lack of capacity within the planning framework and the construction sector.
The government has said it will respond to the consultation and publish revisions before the end of the year. An MHCLG spokesperson said:
“Despite the dire housebuilding inheritance we are trying to fix, we will deliver the 1.5 million homes our country desperately needs and get Britain building again.
“To get there the government has already outlined plans to streamline the planning system, restored mandatory housing targets, established a programme to unblock homes stuck in the planning process, and set up a new body to deliver the next generation of new towns. On top of this our Planning and Infrastructure Bill will go even further in overhauling the planning system to boost housebuilding and economic growth across the country.”
